Statele Unite trebuie să amenințe cu riposta în cazul în care Rusia va continua să pericliteze intersele americane în Siria, scrie fostul consilier pe securitate națională Zbigniew Brzezinski intr-un editorial publicat de Financial Times.
Știm cum a început Primul Război Mondial. Acte de violență individuale au pus în mișcare operațiuni militare ireversibile, lipsite total de viziune strategică și de niște scopuri clare. Restul este istorie: un măcel de patru ani de dragul unor țeluri ambițioase formulate post-factum de puterile învingătoare.
Încă nu este prea târziu să evităm repetarea dureroasă a scenariului, de aceasta dată în Orientul Mijlociu, mai precis în Siria. Am sprijinit decizia inițială președintelui Barack Obama de a nu folosi forța în tragedia siriană. Utilizarea forței pentru a-l îndepărta pe președintele Bashar al-Assad – optiune atât de mult susținută de unii dintre prietenii noștri din Orientul Mijlociu – nu avea niciun sens atât timp cât nu exista un consens intern în favoarea acestei variante nici în Siria și nici în America. Mai mult, fie că ne place, fie că nu, domnul Assad nu a fost nici înclinat să asculte ordinul Washingtonului de a se retrage, nici intimidat de eforturile SUA de a organiza o rezistență democratică împotriva regimului său.
A fost însă obținută o evoluție în foarte dificilele negocieri nucleare cu Iranul, în care atât SUA, cât și Rusia au cooperat pentru a depăși obstacolele. Ne-am fi putut gândi că următoarea fază în abordarea problemei siriene ar fi putut fi implicarea într-un efort pentru a o rezolva, de această dată cu ajutorul unor importanți semnatari ai acordului cu Iranul, precum Rusia și China.
În schimb, Moscova a ales să intervină militar, însă fără cooperare politică și tactică cu Statele Unite – principala putere străină implicată in acțiuni directe, dar nu foarte eficiente, pentru înlăturarea lui Assad. Rusia ar fi atacat elemente care sunt finanțate, antrenate și echipate de americani, provocând daune materiale și victime omenești. În cel mai fericit caz, este vorba despre o etalare a incompetenței militare a Rusiei; în cel mai rău caz, este dovada unei dorințe periculoase de a sublinia impotența politică a Americii.
În ambele cazuri sunt însă în joc viitorul regiunii și al credibilității Americii în rândul aliaților din Orientul Mijlociu. În aceste condiții, dacă vor să își protejeze interesele în regiune, SUA au o singură opțiune: să transmită Moscovei solicitarea de a înceta și de a se abține de la acțiuni militare care afectează în mod direct interesele americane. Rusia are tot dreptul de al-susține pe Assad, dacă asta dorește, dar repetarea a ceea ce deja se spune că s-a întâmplat ar trebui să ducă imediat la riposta SUA.
Prezența navală și aeriană a Rusiei în Siria este vulnerabilă, izolată geografic de țară. Ar putea fi ”dezarmați” dacă persistă în provocările la adresa SUA. Dar, și mai bine, Rusia ar putea fi convinsă să acționeze împreună cu SUA și să încerce să se adapteze unei problematici regionale care transcende intersele unui singur stat.
Dacă se va întâmpla asta, chiar și o cooperare limitată între SUA și Rusia pe plan politic și militar în Orientul Mijlociu ar putea duce și la alte evoluții geopolitice pozitive: angajamentul constructiv al Chinei în limitarea pericolelor unei explozii mai ample în Orientul Mijlociu. Beijingul are un puternic inters economic pentru a preveni un conflict mai larg în Orientul Mijlociu. Și nu este interesat doar să prevină extinderea haosului, ci și să-și sporească influența regională.
Franța și Marea Britanie nu mai pot juca un rol decisiv in Orientul Mijlociu. Pentru Statele Unite este greu să joace acest rol de unele singure. Regiunea este ruptă pe falii religioase, politice, etnice și teritoriale și alunecă către o violență tot mai puternică. Aceasta necesită un ajutor din afară, însă nu o noua formă de dominație colonială. Este nevoie de puterea americană, aplicată inteligent, pentru găsirea unei formule regionale de stabilitate.
Fără îndoială că China preferă să stea pe margine. Poate că a calculat ca va fi mai bine poziționată pentru a culege cioburile. Însă haosul regional se poate extinde către nord-est, către Asia centrală și de nord-est. Atât Rusia, cât și China ar putea fi afectate. Însă interesele americane și prietenii Americii – fără a mai menționa stabilitatea regională – vor suferi și ele. Prin urmare este timpul manifestării cutezanței strategice.
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Acest Brzezinski recunoaste ca USA are interese in SIRIA,lucru care foarte multi au inteles ca USA vrea sa ajute pe sirieni sa le bage DEMOCRATIA pe gat ca si in IRAK,LIBIA,AFGANISTAN,etc si daca nu au reusit,normal trebuia sa le ia PETROLUL.Toata lumea stie(nu cei care nu vor sau sunt spalati pe creier) ca interesele acestor CRIMINALI (pe mana carora a incaput USA din 1791 cand rotschild a in fiintat prima banca in USA),si le rezolva si dezvolta pe spinarea OMENIRII iar pe americani i-a bagat la inaintare. N-o sa accepte sa piarda LEVIATANUL printre degete si mai ales ca trebuie sa-i multumeasca si pe israeliti-rudele lor-. EI vor JAF nu PACE in lume,si pentru asta trebuie sa inceapa razboiul,interesele sunt foarte mari.