Profeţiile “pensionarului” Soros despre Grecia
* Soros: “Grecia se află într-o situaţie otrăvită”
* În 2010, George Soros vedea posibilitatea destrămării Zonei Euro din cauza Greciei, însă în 2015 s-a declarat “adept al euro”
Miliardarul George Soros vorbeşte, din 2011, despre faptul că Grecia nu îşi poate plăti datoriile, dar şi despre faptul că proiectul Zonei Euro are defectul că nu include şi o trezorerie comună, pe lângă Banca Centrală Europeană, astfel că statele membre sunt supuse riscului de default.
În 2010, George Soros vedea posibilitatea destrămării Zonei Euro din cauza Greciei, însă în 2015 s-a declarat “adept al euro”, iar, în luna martie, a pus semnul egal între şansele pentru Grexit şi cele pentru rămânerea Greciei în Zona Euro, după ce, în ianuarie, îşi anunţase retragerea din activitatea investiţională.
George Soros este cunoscut ca un speculator de succes, astfel că toate declaraţiile sale trebuie privite din această perspectivă.
De altfel, de multe ori analiştii care îi comentează spusele atrag atenţia că declaraţiile lui Soros trebuie citite “printre rânduri” şi chiar în sens invers decât le spune.
În plus, săptămânalul economic german Wirtschaft Woche a sugerat, într-un articol extins publicat acum doi ani, că George Soros ar finanţa partidul de stânga din Grecia Syriza.
“De ce sponsorizează Soros agitatori anticapitalişti precum Tsipras (n.r. Alexis Tsipras, premierul Greciei) şi alţii care lansează tirade împotriva Germaniei? Se regăseşte în teoriile lor? Colegii de pe Wall Street vorbesc despre asta doar şoptit, pentru că le e frică de influenţa bătrânului Soros”, scrie Wirtschaft Woche, citat de cotidianul.ro. Publicaţia germană subliniază că explicaţia este “Soros vrea să se răzbune pe Germania”. Se spune că Soros are o relaţie ambivalentă cu Germania, de ură şi dragoste, iar acţiunile sale în Europa şi Germania sunt marcate de această istorie personală.
De altfel, Soros a criticat deseori politica Germaniei în legătură cu Zona Euro.
Wirtschaft Woche a sugerat că vehiculul prin care George Soros a reuşit atragerea lui Tsipras se numeşte INET (Institute for New Economic Thinking), un think tank creat şi finanţat de miliardarul american, format în special din economişti şi jurnalişti, însă INET a infirmat speculaţiile privind sprijinirea de către Soros a stângii radicale.
Jurnaliştii germani scriau că Tsipras a ţinut un discurs la Columbia University, prin intermedierea INET, discurs în care a atras atenţia asupra politicii greşite impuse de Berlin ţării sale şi întregii zone euro. Pe site-ul oficial al INET sunt găzduite mai multe dintre materialele actualului ministru de Finanţe al Greciei, Yannis Varoufakis. Totodată, Soros ar fi fost cel care l-a introdus pe Tsipras mai-marilor din sistemul american, când actualul premier grec s-a întâlnit cu oficiali din Departamentul de Stat şi a tinut un discurs la Brookings Institution, unde Soros asigură o parte din finanţare.
Informaţiile din publicaţia germană au fost preluate masiv pe Internet, pe diverse bloguri, care pun gaz pe foc.
Urmărite, pe parcursul timpului, declaraţiile lui Soros nu reflectă o întoarcere a acestuia la 180 de grade, aşa cum sugerează criticii săi, care îl suspectează că doreşte prăbuşirea euro, ci mai degrabă o nuanţarea a poziţiei sale.
* Soros, 2010: “Euro se poate destrăma”
Criza din 2008 a scos la iveală defectul din construcţia Zonei Euro atunci când membrii au trebuit să-şi salveze sistemele bancare independent, scria Soros, în 2010, în Financial Times, adăugând că criza datoriilor din Grecia a adus situaţia la climax: “Dacă statele membre nu pot face paşi înainte, atunci euro se poate destrăma”.
În opinia sa, chiar şi supravieţuirea Greciei ar ţine sub semnul întrebării viitorul euro. “Chiar dacă această criză este tratată, ce se va întâmpla la următoarea?”, se întreba investitorul.
* Soros, 2011: “Povara datoriei Greciei a devenit nesustenabilă”
În cazul Greciei, povara datoriei a devenit, în mod clar, nesustenabilă, spunea Soros, în octombrie 2011, potrivit New York Review Of Books.
Acesta mai arăta: “Deţinătorilor de obligaţiuni le-a fost oferită o restructurare «voluntară», prin care ar accepta dobânzi mai mici şi rate mai mici sau întârziate. Dar nu au fost făcute alte aranjamente pentru un posibil default sau pentru exit-ul din Zona Euro”.
În opinia sa, un default ordonat sau o excludere temporară din Zona Euro ar fi fost preferabile unei agonii prelungite: “Dar nu au fost făcute pregătiri. Un faliment necontrolat ar putea precipita o criză similară celei care a urmat falimentului Lehamn Brothers, dar de data aceasta una din autorităţile care ar fi necesare pentru a o limita lipseşte”.
Investitorul a mai precizat: “Criza Euro ar putea pune în pericol coeziunea politică a Uniunii Europene”.
Conform acestuia, era imperativ necesară pregătirea pentru posibilitatea defaultului şi excluderii din Zona Euro în cazul Greciei, Portugaliei şi poate Irlandei: “Pentru a preveni un dezastru financiar, trebuie luate patru tipuri de măsuri.
În primul rând, depozitele trebuie protejate. Dacă un euro depus la o bancă grecească ar fi pierdut, atunci un euro depus la o bancă italiană ar valora mai puţin decât unul la o bancă germană sau olandeză şi ar exista o fugă din băncile altor ţări cu deficit.
În al doilea rând, unele bănci din ţările falimentare trebuie menţinute în funcţiune pentru a nu colapsa economia.
În al treilea rând, sistemul bancar european ar trebui recapitalizat şi pus sub supraveghere europeană, diferită de cea naţională.
În al patrulea rând, obligaţiunile guvernamentale ale celorlalte ţări cu deficit ar trebui protejate de contagiune. Ultimele două s-ar aplica şi dacă nici o ţară nu dă faliment”.
Soros mai considera că nu există alternativă, decât “naşterea ingredientului lipsă: o trezorerie europeană cu putere să taxeze şi să împrumute”.
* Soros, 2013: “Toată lumea ştie că Grecia nu îşi poate plăti niciodată datoria”
Toată lumea ştie că Grecia nu îşi poate plăti niciodată datoria, spunea George Soros, în 2013 pentru Spiegel Online, adăugând că, în cazul tăierii poverii, capitalul privat s-ar întoarce, iar Grecia şi-ar putea reveni rapid. “Pot să depun mărturie, din experienţa personală, că investitorii s-ar înghesui în Grecia, odată ce datoria ar fi eliminată”, a precizat investitorul, menţionând că Guvernul Germaniei respinge reducerea datoriei Greciei: “Sectorul public nu poate reduce datoria deoarece asta ar încălca un număr de taboo-uri, în special pentru BCE. Aceste dificultăţi pot fi depăşite sub leadenship-ul Germaniei.
Şi dacă o ţară ar fi să recunoască cum ar putea funcţiona o asemenea abordare, atunci Germania ar trebui să îşi aducă aminte că a beneficiat de tăieri de dobânzi de trei ori – în Planul Dawes, Planul Young şi în legătură cu Planul Marshall”.
* Soros, 2014: “Am încredere în euro”
George Soros spunea că are încredere în euro, în 2014, într-un interviu pentru Der Spiegel, citat de Market Watch.
“Cred în euro… drept urmare, echipa mea de investiţii abia aşteaptă să facă bani în curând în Europa, de exemplu prin pomparea de bani în bănci care au nevoie urgentă de capital “, spunea investitorul, precizând că “Zona Euro are nevoie de acest tip de investitori acum”.
Soros şi-a reiterat opinia că eforturile Germaniei să salveze moneda unică au înrăutăţit situaţia: “O recuperare sustenabilă pentru regiune încă nu există, chiar dacă pieţele sunt departe de turbulenţele de acum câţiva ani”.
Acesta se temea că Zona Euro ar putea trăi o lungă perioadă de stagnare economică, similară cu cea din Japonia, în ultimii 25 de ani şi adăuga că Uniunea Europeană nu ar supravieţui unui deceniu sau mai mutl de stagnare.
În ianuarie 2014, Soros a criticat Germania, într-un articol pentru Project Syndicate, potrivit Market Watch.
Despre euro, Soros a spus, din nou, că are un defect fatal: “Crearea unei bănci centrale comune, fără o trezorerie comună, înseamnă că datoriile guvernamentale sunt denominate într-o monedă pe care nu o controlează o ţară anume, ceea ce face ca membri să fie supuşi riscului de default”.
Project Syndicate a găzduit, la începutul anului, şi un articol al lui Joschka Fischer, fost ministru de externe german şi vicecancelar, intitulat “O înmormântare grecească la austeritatea germană”.
Acesta arată că deşi existau avertizări referitoare la posibile reacţii politice, Guvernul “încăpăţânat” al cancelarului Angela Merkel le-a ignorat şi a insistat că austeritatea este esenţială pentru creşterea econonomică, iar UE nu a avut altă şansă decât să meargă pe aceastp carte.
“Acum, că grecii au votat în favoarea unui partid anti-austeritate (Syriza), reacţiile au venit”, scrie Joschka Fischer, care, potrivit Wikipedia, este membru fondartor al “think tank”-ului “European Council on Foreign Relations”, alături de George Soros.
“Deşi nimeni nu poate spune ce poate însemna falimentul Greciei pentru euro, cu siguranţă poartă riscul existenţei monedei unice. La fel de sigur, mega-dezastrul care ar rezulta dintr-o destrămare a Zonei Euro nu ar ocoli Germania”, mai scria Joschka Fischer, în ianuarie
Potrivit acestuia, coeziunea Zonei Euro şi succesul reformelor structurale necesare – şi deci propria supravieţuire – depind acum de posibilitatea depăşirii deficitului de creştere: “Germania are spaţiu pentru manevre fiscale. Mesajul de la alegerile din Grecia este că Merkel ar trebui să îl folosească, înainte să fie prea târziu”.
* Soros, 2015: “Probabilitatea ca Grecia să părăsească zona euro este de 50%”
Probabilitatea ca Grecia să părăsească zona euro este de 50% în prezent, în condiţiile în care problema economiei elene a fost gestionată prost de la început, de toate părţile, era de părere miliardarul american George Soros, în martie 2015.
Într-un interviu acordat agenţiei Bloomberg, Soros a declarat: “În acest moment, suntem la o bifurcaţie de drumuri şi cred că ambele variante sunt posibile. Poţi să continui să o dai înapoi la infinit, prin plata dobânzilor fără ştergerea datoriei, însă, în acelaşi timp, nu va exista niciun excedent bugetar primar, întrucât economia Greciei se scufundă”.
Miliardarul american considera că negocierile dintre premierul elen Alexis Tsipras şi creditorii internaţionali ai Greciei ar putea să se încheie cu un eşec, ceea ce, în opinia sa, ar duce la ieşirea ţării din uniunea monetară.
În luna mai, Soros spunea că Uniunea Europeană a fost o idee foarte inspirată pentru oamenii ca el. Soros a mai spus, citat de ValueWalk: “Din cauza crizei zonei euro, UE a fost transformată în ceva radical diferit”. De asemenea, el a subliniat că două categorii diferite de ţări au evoluat: cele creditoare şi cele debitoare: “Debitorii au avut probleme în îndeplinirea obligaţiilor lor şi acest lucru a pus creditorii la conducere. Ei (creditorii) au stabilit regulile şi i-au pus în dificultate pe debitori. O asociere voluntară de egali s-a transformat într-o asociere involuntară de ne-egali”.
Deşi a evitat să facă predicţii asupra situaţiei din Grecia, George Soros a notat: “Grecia se află într-o situaţie otrăvită. Toate părţile implicate au făcut greşeli şi există multă ostilitate, o mulţime de sentimente negative… Fiecare parte doreşte să-şi lovească oponetul chiar dacă este la rândul său lovită”.
Miliardarul George Soros şi-a anunţat, în ianuarie, retragerea definitivă din activitatea investiţională, afirmând că managerii fondurilor de hedging au, în aceste zile, “o viaţă de iad” din cauza incertitudinilor şi a volatilităţii de pe pieţele financiare.
Soros, în vârstă de 84 de ani, probabil cel mai influent investitor financiar, alături de Warren Buffet, a renunţat să mai administreze banii clienţilor încă din 2011 şi le-a dezvăluit oaspeţilor unei cine pe care a găzduit-o, la Forumul Economic Mondial de la Davos, că încredinţează fondurile familiei directorului de investiţii Scott Bessent.
“M-am retras de mai multe ori în trecut, dar de data asta decizia este definitivă. Îmi dedic toată energia activităţilor filantropice”, a spus investitorul.
Soros a fondat primul său fond de hedging împreună cu Jim Rodgers, în 1973, dar nu a devenit faimos până când nu a pariat un miliard de lire sterline împotriva Băncii Angliei, în aşa-numita “miercure neagră”, în 1993. El a mizat pe faptul că Marea Britanie a intrat în Mecanismul European al Ratelor de Schimb cu un nivel prea ridicat al lirei şi a avut dreptate. Guvernul condus la acea dată de John Major a cheltuit 2 miliarde de lire pentru susţinerea lirei, iar dobânda de politică monetară a urcat pentru scurt timp la 12%, dar Executivul a fost nevoit să se recunoască înfrânt.
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