O nouă criză? Bursele din China sunt în cădere liberă
O criză mult mai puternică amenință să vină din China, unde bursa continuă să scadă, iar pierderile sunt de ordinul miilor de miliarde de dolari în doar câteva săptămâni. Economiștii cred că aceasta va fi criza care va rivaliza cu marea depresiune care a lovit America în anii 30.
Europenii sunt concentraţi pe evoluţia situaţiei din Grecia şi vor să ştie dacă Atena va plăti datoriile sau va părăsi zona euro şi uită să privească spre Asia, de unde ar putea veni un tsunami distrugător pentru economii. Bursele din China sunt în cădere liberă de trei săptămâni. Este o discrepanţă enormă. La începutul lunii trecute, acţiunile atingeau maximul ultimilor şapte ani. În ultimele trei săptămâni, valoarea lor a scăzut cu o treime.
„Situaţia este foarte gravă şi există posibilitatea să se înrăutăţească. Nu văd niciun indiciu că piaţa se va stabiliza pe termen mediu”, spune analistul economic Michael Every.
1.300 de companii, aproape jumătate dintre cele listate pe bursele din China, au cerut suspendarea tranzacţiilor pentru acţiunile lor în încercarea de a limita pierderile. Asta înseamnă însă îngheţarea unor fonduri estimate la 2.600 de miliarde de dolari.
Investitorii sunt derutaţi.
„Sunt foarte îngrijorată. Cum este posibil ca bursa să fi înregistrat pierderi atât de mari? Fac tranzacţii pe bursă de ani de zile şi n-am văzut niciodată o cădere atât de abruptă. Niciodată”, spune He Meizhen, investitor.
Beijingul a încercat să stabilizeze pieţele financiare prin noi reglementări, cu atât mai mult cu cât printre cei care au de pierdut sunt şi membri ai Partidului Comunist. Prelungirea acestei situaţii nu face decât să pericliteze evoluţia economică a Chinei cu repercusiuni asupra economiei globale, spun specialiştii.
Guvernul cere investitorilor să nu se panicheze. Prea târziu. Toată lumea vinde tot şi repede – e cea mai abruptă cădere a bursei din ultimii 23 de ani. Miercuri şi-a pierdut încă 5,9% din valoare, dar tăvălugul a pornit acum o lună. Pe 12 iunie indicele Shanghai se umflase în toată spendoarea sa, era la maximul ultimilor șapte ani, dar de acolo a intrat în cădere liberă.
Până acum circa 30% din valoarea acţiunilor a fost ştearsă – în bani, asta înseamnă undeva la 3. 200 de miliarde de dolari. Pierduţi. E mai mult decât întreaga valoare a bursei franceze, iar panica se extinde. În plus față de companiile listate care au ieşit de bunăvoie de pe piaţă pentru a nu mai pierde bani, alte 800 au fost scoase forţat, fiindcă s-au prăbuşit prea tare. Doar 22% dintre companiile listate au mai fost azi la tranzacţionare, dar virusul se transmite rapid.
Practic, s-a format un tsunami. Investitorii au poziţii bine definite şi cum sunt folosite instrumente cu levier, scăderea abruptă a dus la apel în marjă, închiderea cu pierdere şi apoi panica. Au început să vândă cu ambele mâini. Şi probabil şi cu amândouă picioarele. Pentru că îşi iau tălpăşiţa când e un uragan din acesta.
Guvernul de la Beijing a încercat să vină cu tot felul de proptele ca să sprijine piaţa. Au apărut tot felul de entităţi ale statului, companii sau fonduri care au anunţat că fac achiziţii pentru a reface încrederea. Degeaba.
Şi statul ar avea ce să-şi reproşeze. Disperat după acea creştere mare de peste 7%, guvernul comunist a căutat tot timpul să aibă motoare de avans. După criză a pompat bani în investiţii masive, unele care s-au dovedit inutile. Apoi au fost încurajate dezvoltările imobiliare. Când şi acestea s-au răcit, statul a încurajat intrarea pe pieţele de capital, unde au ajuns cei neexperimentaţi. Toate au fost frumoase şi bursa a crescut cu 150% într-un an. Când a a sunat ceasul de trezire la realitate, a apărut panica. Acesta este riscul atunci când in pieţele de capital intră direct oameni care ştiu mai puţin cu ce se mănâncă. Şi marele crah din 1929 a avut această componentă. Pe atunci şi lustrangiul de pe Wall Street juca la bursă. Oamenii obişnuiţi luau bani cu împrumut din bănci şi se jucau cu acţiuni.
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Cand China s-a unit cu Rusia,Brazilia.India,Africa de sud,tocmai acum sa le cada bursele financiare?,nu v-i se pare o manareala?Asta-i lozinca a la SUA,sa ameteasca lumea.