„Bătrânii trăiesc prea mult și este un risc pentru economia globală, trebuie făcut ceva”
Îmbătrânirea populației este o provocare cunoscută. Și Fondul Monetar Internațional îi acordă o analiză amplă în fiecare întâlnire trimestrială. Ceea ce atrage atenția este agresivitatea și cruzimea cu care pune în relief problema. Fondul reclamă, între alte măsuri, ca beneficiile să fie reduse și vârsta de pensionare să fie prelungită din cauza „riscului de a trăi mai mult decât era de așteptat”.
De asemenea, propune soluții de piață pentru a reduce acest „risc”. În ceea ce privește economiștii FMI, spaniolul José Viñals numește „risc de longevitate”. „Dacă longevitatea crește cu trei ani peste ceea ce este prevăzut, până în 2050, costul îmbătrânirii – care deja este enorm pentru Guverne, întreprinderi, societăți de asigurări și particulari – va crește cu 50% în economiile avansate luând ca referință PIB-ul din 2010. Pentru țările emergente, acest cost suplimentar ar fi de 25%. În termeni absoluți, costul prevăzut va crește cu zeci de miliarde de dolari la scară globală. Acest lucru pune în pericol viabilitatea finanțelor publice prin declanșarea nivelurilor datoriei publice într-o proporție similară. În paralel, este un risc pentru solvabilitatea entităților private”.
După cum a explicat Viñals la conferința de presă în care a prezentat raportul, „a trăi mai mult este bine, dar are un risc financiar semnificativ. Ne va costa mai mult ca indivizi, corporații și guverne. De aceea, trebuie să ne îngrijorăm acum pentru riscurile longevității, astfel încât costurile să nu ne sufoce pe viitor”, a spus Viņals, șeful Departamentului Piețe de Capital.
Christine Lagarde: „Bătrânii trăiesc prea mult și este un risc pentru economia globală, trebuie făcut ceva”
În 1750, speranța de viață în țările Europei Occidentale nu ajungea la 40 de ani. Din 1900 a crescut ajungând la 80 de ani în 2010. La scală globală a trecut de la 48, în anii 1950, la 70 de ani, în ultimul an de referință. Dar ceea ce schimbă calculele, conform FMI, este speranța de viață când au împlinit 60 de ani. Națiunile Unite prevăd că pentru 2050 speranța de viață, plecând de la această vârstă, 60 de ani, va crește cu 26 de ani în economiile avansate și cu 22 de ani în țările în curs de dezvoltare. Trăind mai mult populația, va trebui să se plăteasca mai multe pensii și prestări la siguranța socială. În acest caz, pune ca exemplu planul de pensii private din SUA. „Companiile ar trebui să-și multiplice contribuțiile de mai multe ori pentru a putea face față acestor datorii suplimentare”, spune el. „Recunoașterea și atenuarea acestui risc este un proces care ar trebui lansat acum”.
Christine Lagarde, directoarea FMI, vrea ca reuniunea din primavara lui 2018, de la Washington, să servească pentru a privi înainte. În acest context, cere Guvernelor să admită că îmbătrânirea le poate crea probleme serioase în viitor și că este un risc. Pentru a neutraliza efectele, recomandă combinarea creșterii vârstei de pensionare cu alte măsuri. Pentru prelungirea vârstei de pensionare propune ca aceasta să fie legată de speranța de viață, astfel ca numărul de ani în care pensionarul încasează pensia să nu crească. Dar asta nu e de ajuns. FMI crede că trebuie luate și alte măsuri, și între ele, reducerea pensiilor, creșterea cotizațiilor și posibilitatea ca Statele membre să angajeze asiguratori privați pentru a acoperi acest „risc pentru persoanele care trăiesc mai mult decât se aștepta”.
Economiștii FMI prevăd că proprii cetățeni să-și crească economiile prin planuri de pensii, recomandă chiar să fie obligați să contracteze utilizarea ipotecilor inverse, pentru care casă în proprietate este livrată Băncii în momentul decesului, în schimbul primirii până la acea dată a unui venit lunar pentru aceasta. Fondul solicită țărilor, de asemenea, o mai mare transparență atunci când raportează tendința de îmbătrânire și modul în care se pregătesc să finanțeze pensionarea.
FMI conchide, reamintind că toate aceste reforme „vor dura ani ca să dea roade”, iar orice întârziere în acest proces va face dificilă confruntarea cu această provocare așa cum ar trebui. „A acorda atenție îmbătrânirii populației și riscului de longevitate suplimentară face parte din setul de reforme necesare pentru a restabili încrederea în viabilitatea bilanțurilor sectorului public și privat”.
Oamenii sunt reduși la funcția de producători-consumatori și puși exclusiv în slujba unui sistem economic în care 1% din populație deține 40% din întreaga bogăție, iar 80% dețin doar 7%. În aceste condiții, devine normal ca acești „indivizi”, „inși”, „persoane”, „forță de muncă”, „unități statistice”, „subiecți” atât de nesemnificativi pentru clasa bogată și conducătoare să ajungă să fie priviți ca animale de prăsilă de care economia are nevoie, precum agricultura primitivă odinioară de animalele de povară și de plug.
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