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Să ne pregătim cu calm pentru următoarea criză economică

July 21, 2016 284 Comments 2692 views

Recesiunile sunt ciclice, economiștii știu că sunt inevitabile, dată fiind chiar esența naturii umane. Din păcate, la noi, românii, în ultima jumătate de secol n-am avut nicio recesiune micuță, am avut însă trei crize economice majore, care s-au transferat social și chiar politic în adevărate țunamiuri. Faceți diferența dintre o recesiune și o criză, căci am face bine să ne pregătim cel puțin psihologic pentru următoarea recesiune. Ea se apropie.

Cel mai des liderii politici de la noi dau vina pe evenimente internaționale, când este atât de evident că pentru România restul lumii este mai des pretextul declanșator decât cauza profundă a unor crize economice majore. Care crize sunt ale noastre, lăsate moștenire din moși-strămoși, cu mari șanse să le transmitem pe mai departe urmașilor. La noi inclusiv deciziile economice sunt atât de emoționale (ca să nu zic populiste) încât transformarea unor perioade de recesiune în adevărate tragedii naționale greu ar putea fi evitate.

Trei crize majore în jumătate de secol

Da! Atâtea au fost, iar ultima, asta din 2008-2012, a fost cea mai firavă. A mai fost una în anii 80 terminată cu o revoluție și una la finalul anilor 90, când căderea economică dintr-un an a fost de două ori mai amplă decât cea din 2009. Hai să le înțelegem împreună! Ca să nu le retrăim la infinit.

Marea criză economică a anilor 80 este cea pe care și-o amintesc mai des părinții noștri. A fost perioada aia în care s-au raționalizat benzina, alimentele, viața în general în România se dădea fie pe cartelă, fie pe sub mână.

Desigur, istoricii și economiștii au explicat criza economică respectivă în contextul crizei petrolului (de după revoluția din Iran) și a crizei datoriilor de la finalul anilor 70 (ce a crescut înfiorător dobânzile cauzând în 1982 intrarea României în încetare de plăți).

Dar, să vă spun un secret… În fapt autoritățile comuniste și cele criptocomuniste (de după 1990) au reușit să arunce cel puțin parțial acumularea unor tensiuni economice, hăt-hăt! în 1997, când n-am mai avut o criză ci un colaps social.

Uite, părinții noștri își amintesc anii 70 ca fiind unii de prosperitate și ei chiar au fost, cel puțin în comparație cu austeritatea de după 1982. Nu pentru că a crescut PIB-ul ci pentru că aproximativ 70% din creșterea economică a fost direcționată către creșterea nivelului de trai. Ceea ce, desigur, este senzațional! Dar în spatele acestor adevăruri istorice stau câteva erori fundamentale… Pe care, din păcate, le tot repetăm, chiar și astăzi! Supraîncălzită deja la începutul anilor 70 din cauza investițiilor masive din deceniul anterior, economia României avea chiar nevoie la vremea respectivă de o recesiune care să producă o recalibrare a resurselor și consumului, dacă asta ar fi fost posibil în comunism. Din fericire sau nefericire (greu de judecat!) politica externă abia deschidea epoca marilor împrumuturi internaționale, în următorul deceniu datoria externă urcând la 11 miliarde de dolari, față de un PIB de … 12 miliarde de dolari în 1970.

dat-ext-70

Deși creditele au mers în special în investiții productive care au generat salarii și acel impresionant transfer de bunăstare către populație, impresionanta creștere de producție din anii 70 greu putea fi considerată adaptată corect unei cereri de piață. Importurile energetice au crescut monstruos tocmai pentru a susține dezvoltarea industrială, dar la finalul anilor 70 România tot nu reușea să încaseze din exporturi mai mult decât plătea pe importuri și asta nu pentru că nu produce suficient ci pentru că marea majoritate a produselor nu erau exportabile (nu erau de calitate) și ajungeau pe piața internă. Ceea ce, nici asta n-ar fi fost grav, dacă piața internă ar fi oferit un preț corect și o valoare adăugată. Cum nu le oferea, piața internă era privită ca un fel de coș de gunoi, penalizator pentru produsele proaste față de vedetele economiei care mergeau la export.

Este perioada în care Ceaușescu învață expresia productivitatea muncii (nu râdeți că nu este un concept facil, nici azi nu îl înțeleg prea mulți oameni și chiar vreau să îl umanizez într-o postare viitoare) și începe să o repete pe la toate plenarele, congresele și telejurnalele.

pib-70

Așadar în anii 70 intrarea în recesiune a fost evitată prin venirea unor capitaluri masive sub forma unor credite externe. Știm, a urmat totuși criza anilor 80, o criză economică și socială, cu o creștere de PIB făcută invers decât până atunci, prin exporturi masive în detrimentul pieței interne, unde leii deveniseră cvasi-inutili iar criza socială se adâncea. Chiar dacă în anii 80 PIB-ul a crescut cu aproximativ 80% putem considera deceniul respectiv ca fiind unul de criză, în ciuda faptului că recesiune statistică a existat doar în 1983, 1984 și 1989.

Anul 1989 a consemnat o recesiune economică profundă, s-au spart toate bubele acumulate și în economiei dar și în societate iar crizele economice și sociale s-au transformat în criza politică mai cunoscută și sub numele de Revoluția din Decembrie. Ceaușescu a căzut, dar comunismul economic nici n-avea cum să cadă atât de repede și nici motive nu avea. Cel puțin nu atâta timp cât politicienii au preferat să dea vina pe Ceaușescu, scutind sistemul economic comunist de orice vină.

dat-ext-89

Interesant este faptul că cel puțin din 1988, când soldul datoriei externe intrase sub 3 miliarde de dolari, Ceaușescu ar fi putut opta pentru ameliorarea condițiilor de viață și deci a crizei sociale din România. A preferat în loc de asta să acumuleze rezerve valutare, într-un calcul care teoretic sună destul de corect dar care s-a dovedit că nu este. Cel puțin nu în modul extrem în care a fost el executat înainte de 1990, iar reversul său după 1990.

Revoluția economică nu a venit în 1989

De ce a căzut economia după 1990? Din același motiv pentru care începuse încă din 1989 să cadă. Bariera pe care noi o punem înainte și după 22 decembrie 1989 nu are nicio valoare economică, ea este doar psihologică. România instrase în cea mai profundă recesiune de după al doilea război mondial și ea a continuat chiar dacă românii au găsit o perioadă banane ieftine în alimentare, pâine și carne la liber.

Recesiunea a durat șase ani și a fost cauzată de faptul că s-a dus dracu blocul CAER, produsele au rămas fără piață de desfacere. Nu că n-ar fi știut/găsit drumul spre alte piețe libere sau spre aceleași, devenite libere, dar pentru asta ar fi trebuit desigur să aibă un raport decent între preț și calitate. Ceea ce a urmat (primele guvernări Iliescu) ar merita trecut însă într-o istorie a prostiilor economice planetare.

Interesant este că deși după 1989 au mai urmat alți trei ani de cădere economică, greu se poate vorbi de o criză socială în primii ani de după Revoluție. Mineriadele, dacă vă gândiți la ele, au fost manifestări de voință politică, nu crize sociale. Producția se prăbușea dar fabricile nu se închideau, șomajul nu creștea, lumea avea loc de muncă și salariu, vota FSN-ul și pe Iliescu iar lucrurile au mers așa fix până s-au terminat rezervele făcute de Ceaușescu în perioada de criză socială din anii 80.

recesiune-90

Apoi, între 1992 și 1996, producția s-a stabilizat dar autoritățile din România au evitat exact privatizarea și rentabilizarea coloșilor industriali (culmea prostiei e că acestea sunt și ramurile cel mai puțin elastice, căci dacă îți dă faliment, de exemplu, o rafinărie nu apare imediat un investitor care să-ți facă alta, așa cum s-ar întâmpla dacă ar da faliment o frizerie).

A apărut și șomajul, el a crescut, dar adevăratul truc al evitării unor crize economice în perioada de până în 1997 a fost inflația. Aceasta sărăcea populația, salvând totuși prin preț o producție aflată în permanentă scădere și mai multe întreprinderi colos care, din rațiuni politice, evitau să se restructureze. Când nici inflația n-a mai avut ce salva (începuseră deja colapsurile bancare) a început recesiunea din 1997-1999, o cădere economică cruntă de 15% în ultimul ei an. Se epuizaseră și resursele bugetare, nici credite nu ne mai dădea nimeni iar autoritățile române au făcut (sub presiunea FMI) corecția unor greșeli începute prin anii 60 și transferate (prin amânarea unor crize) aproape jumătate de secol. În fapt s-au închis pentru a fi apoi redimensionate fie prin privatizarea fie prin restructurare marile unități socialiste concepute pe vremea lui Ceaușescu sau chiar Dej.

Cel mai bun exemplu este Sidex, făcut pe vremea lui Dej, dar inaugurat de Ceaușescu, privatizat în 1999. La data privatizării acumulase pierderi de un miliard de dolari, suportate de stat din taxele și impozitele cetățenilor. Practic numai pierderea SIDEX din 1999, mânca aproximativ 2,5% din creșterea economică a țării, un procent monstruos!

Și deși acest colaps economic intervenit abia la finalul anilor 90 a pus capăt unor tensiuni economice acumulate în patru decenii, magnitudinea lui (șomajul a urcat până la 15%) a fost oarecum atenuată de alte politici greșite ce au amorsat probleme ulterioare. Atunci au demarat pensionările anticipate și un sistem de mascare a inactivității economice care a culminat cu introducerea venitului minim garantat în perioada Adrian Năstase.

Din punct de vedere economic recesiunea din 1997 s-a terminat în 1999 dar criza socială a durat până prin 2003 când a fost atenuată de intrarea masivă a investițiilor străine ce au precedat intrarea României în NATO și UE.

Interesant, nu? Valul de creștere din anii 60-70 a fost alimentat de intrarea unor capitaluri sub forma unor credite pentru producție, cel din perioada 2003-2007 la fel, cel puțin parțial. Ambele s-au concretizat în investiții directe (cu precizarea că cele din anii 2000 au fost mult mai raportate la cerere decât cele gândite de autoritățile comuniste în perioada CAER) dar în ambele cazuri o importantă componentă de creștere a nivelului de trai a fost determinată de transferurile de bunăstare, prin preț (în perioada comunistă) și de creditele de consum în perioada 2000.

Și dacă de exemplu la ultima criză consumul exagerat a pus în final presiune pe piața imobiliară și aceea a crăpat prima căci acolo intraseră și cei mai mulți bani speculativi, nu e deloc de neglijat nici dezechilibrul produs în economie de creșterea nesăbuită a creditului de consum care a majorat importurile (alimentând în fapt o îndatorare externă).
Importuri mari și îndatorare externă… vă sună cunoscut? Citiți mai sus mixul anilor 70, descărcați parțial pe criza din anii 80. Alte forme, același fond!

Unde suntem acum?

Evident, suntem din nou în fața unei recesiuni care, din fericire nu este iminentă chiar dacă este inevitabilă. Recesiunile au rolul lor, ele corectează prostiile economice, indiferent că acestea au fost provocate de deciziile autorităților sau de comportamentul nesăbuit al populației/firmelor. Este posibil ca următoarea recesiune să vină prin 2017, 2018, sau poate abia prin 2020. Evenimentele externe (să ne amintim) pot precipita o recesiune, declanșând-o mai repede sau mai târziu, dar niciodată ele nu sunt cauza directă.

Avem creștere mare de consum? Da! Deja ritumul de creștere al deficitului comercial ne plasează cumva similar cu anii 2006-2007. Avem creșteri de salarii (și în privat dar mai ales la stat) ce limitează o expansiune pe dezvoltare, favorizând consum pe credit?

Evident că avem! Așa știm noi să ne amorsăm singuri…

Mai avem însă și o speranță de investiții străine ce ar putea compensa ori amâna o recesiune (Ford începe de exemplu o producție mai serioasă la Craiova pe final de 2017).

A! Și mai avem și câteva prostii … pozitive.

Uite, Legea dării în plată a calmat deocamdată creșterea imobiliară (dar și în construcții) pe credit. Dacă nu crapă nicio bancă și dacă nu intră sectorul construcțiilor (mare angajator de muncă necalificată, de care avem o grămadă) în recesiune atunci mult disputata legea ar putea avea un efect de răcorire. Frânând dezvoltarea, da, știu, culmea e că, de fapt, construcțiile au unul dintre cele mai benefice efecte de propagare în economie… De aia spun că e prostie, dar se poate dovedi pozitivă pentru că ritmul de creștere este important în evitarea unor crize.

Apoi Legea cu 51% ar trebui, teoretic, să limiteze importurile de alimente. Teoretic! Practic, ea nu-i face în mod direct pe agricultorii români să producă mai de calitate și mai eficient. Dar, așa cum spuneam altă dată, e o pârghie importantă în mâna politicienilor, cu condiția ca aceștia să o folosească în interesul oamenilor iar nu pentru șpăgile proprii. Știu, politicienii noștri n-au fost niciodată nici prea deștepți nici prea cinstiți dar… eu doar zic! Legea respectivă se poate dovedi o prostie, sau, din contră, s-ar putea dovedi extrem de pozitivă în următorii ani.

O recesiune poate fi cauzată și de cheltuielile de înarmare, pe care România trebuie să le facă, în contextul internațional complicat de acum. Dar asta nu înseamnă că trebuie să ne îngropăm în datorii ca Grecia sau că nu putem întoarce măcar o parte a efortului de înarmare prin investiții productive și locuri de muncă în România.

Toate acestea contează imens!

Recesiunile corectează greșeli și la scară istorică ele sunt necesare, dar e timpul să mai și învățăm cum să evităm crizele ce ne aruncă prea mult înapoi. Dacă tot la intervale de zece ani noi avem câte o criză majoră, apăi poate și de aia jucăm bătuta pe loc.

PS Acest articol nu are un scop polemic ci unul informativ. El este conceput la nivelul de înțelegere al unui elev de liceu și intenționez să continuu publicarea acestui tip de materiale de umanizare a economiei, aici pe biziday. Am rotunjit cifrele pentru a le face mai ușor de citit. Sursa datelor statistice – Victor Axenciuc

sursa: biziday.ro

 

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