“În urmă cu jumătate de deceniu, când a început criza euro, economiştii keynesieni au prognozat că austeritatea impusă Greciei şi altor ţări în criză nu va da rezultate. Va sufoca creşterea economică, va spori şomajul şi nu va reuşi nici să reducă datoria raportată la PIB. Alţii – Comisia Europeană, Banca Centrală Europeană şi câteva universităţi – au vorbit despre contracţiile expansioniste. Dar până şi FMI a arătat că aceste contracţii, precum reducerea cheltuielilor guvernamentale, sunt doar atât – contracţii”, scrie Joseph E. Stiglitz, laureat al Nobelului pentru Economie şi profesor la Columbia University, într-un articol publicat de Project Syndicate.
“Nu mai este nevoie de o altă demonstraţie. Austeritatea a eşuat în mod repetat, de la aplicarea sa în SUA sub preşedintele Herbert Hoover, când a transformat un crah bursier în Marea Deperesiune, până la “programele” FMI impuse în Asia de Est şi în America Latină în deceniile din urmă. Iar când Grecia a inceput să aibă probleme a fost încercată din nou.
Grecia a reuşit să urmeze dictatul impus de “troică” (Comisia Europeană, Banca Centrală Europeană şi FMI): a convertit deficitul bugetar primar în surplus primar. Dar reducerea cheltuielilor guvernamentale a fost devastatoare, aşa cum se prevăzuse: şomaj de 25%, scădere economică de 22% începând din 2009 şi o creştere a datoriei raportată la PIB de 35%. Iar acum, odată cu victoria clară a partidului anti-austeritate Syriza, alegătorii greci au arătat că s-au săturat.
Deci ce e de făcut? În primul rând să fim limpezi: Grecia ar putea fi acuzată pentru problemele sale dacă ar fi singura ţară în care tratamentul troicii a eşuat lamentabil. Dar Spania avea un surplus şi un procent mic al datoriei raportate la PIB înainte de criză, iar acum este şi ea în depresiune. În Grecia şi Spania nu este nevoie de reforme atât de mult pe cat este nevoie de o reformă structurală a modelului zonei euro şi de o regândire fundamentală a cadrelor politice care au dus la performanţele extrem de slabe ale uniunii monetare.
Grecia ne-a mai amintit încă o dată cât de multă nevoie este de un cadru pentru restructurarea datoriilor. Datoriile excesive au dus nu numai la criza din 2008, ci şi la criza din Asia de Est, în anii 1990 şi la criza din America Latina, din anii 1980. Ele continuă să provoace suferinţe ascunse în SUA, unde milioane de proprietari şi-au pierdut casele, iar acum ameninţă alte milioane în Polonia şi în alte ţări în care au fost contractate credite în franci elveţieni.
Având în vedere cât de multe dezastre au fost produse de datoriile excesive ne putem întreba de ce cetăţenii şi statele au ajuns în mod repetat în asemenea situaţie. Până la urmă, aceste datorii sunt contracte – adica acorduri voluntare – astfel încât creditorii sunt responsabili, la fel şi debitorii. De fapt, creditorii sunt mai responsabili: de regulă ei sunt instituţii financiare sofisticate, pe când datornicii sunt mult mai puţin obişnuiţi cu vicisitudinile pieţei şi cu riscurile asociate diferitelor prevederi contractuale. Într-adevăr, ştim că în Statele Unite băncile şi-au pradat practic clienţii, profitând de lipsa cunoştinţelor lor financiare.
Fiecare ţară (dezvoltată) a observat că pentru a face capitalismul să meargă este nevoie să le oferi indivizilor şansa unui nou început. Închisorile datornicilor din secolul XIX au fost un eşec – inumane şi nu tocmai potrivite pentru a garanta plata datoriei. Au fost însă de ajutor oferirea unor stimulente pentru imprumuturi, prin responsabilizarea creditorilor în privinţa consecinţelor deciziilor lor.
La nivel internaţional nu avem încă un cadru prin care să oferim şansa unui nou început. Chiar înainte de criza din 2008 Naţiunile Unite, cu sprijinul marii majorităţi a statelor dezvoltate şi în curs de dezvoltare, a încercat să creeze un asemenea cadru. Dar SUA s-au opus categoric; poate că SUA doresc să reintroducă închisorile datornicilor pentru oficialii din ţările îndatorate (în caz că este asa, s-ar putea elibera locuri la Guantanamo).
Ideea de a reinstitui închisorile datornicilor poate că pare trasă de păr, dar rezonează cu actuala discuţie despre riscul moral şi responsabilitate. Există temerea că, dacă Greciei îi va fi permisă restructurarea datoriei, ţara va avea din nou aceeaşi problemă, la fel şi alte state.
Este un nonsens. Oare se gândeşte cineva întreg la minte că o ţară îşi poate dori să se pună în situaţia prin care a trecut Grecia doar pentru a nu plăti datoriile? Dacă există un risc moral, acesta este al creditorilor – în special al celor privaţi – care au fost împrumutaţi în mod repetat. Dacă Europa a permis ca datoriile să se mute din sectorul privat în sectorul public – un model împământenit în ultimii 50 de ani – atunci consecinţele ar trebuie să le suporte Europa, nu Grecia. Într-adevăr, actuala problemă a Greciei este consecinţa programelor greşite ale troicii care i-au fost băgate pe gât.
Deci, “imorală” este nu restructurarea datoriei, ci absenţa acestei posibilităţi. Nu este nimic special în dilema cu care se confruntă Grecia astăzi; au fost multe ţări în aceeaşi situaţie. Însă structura zonei euro face ca problemele Greciei să fie mai dificil de abordat: uniunea monetară nu permite statelor să-şi devalorizeze moneda pentru a scăpa de probleme, iar, pe de altă parte, minima solidaritate europeană care ar trebui să însoţească aceasta reducere a flexibilităţii politice este ca şi inexistentă.
În urmă cu 70 de ani, la finalul celui de al Doilea Război Mondial, aliaţii au înţeles că Germaniei trebuie să i se dea şansa unui nou început. Au înţeles că ascensiunea lui Hitler s-a datorat mai mult şomajului (mai puţin inflaţiei) care a rezultat din impunerea unor datorii tot mai mari Germaniei după Primull Război Mondial. Aliaţii nu au luat în calcul nechibzuinţa cu care au fost acumulate aceste datorii şi nici nu au vorbit despre costurile pe care Germania le-a impus altora. În schimb, ei nu numai că au şters datoriile, ci au oferit şi ajutor, iar trupele aliate staţionate în Germania au oferit un stimulent fiscal în plus.
Când companiile falimentează are loc o convertire a datoriei în active ale companiei. Abordarea analoagă în cazul Greciei ar fi convertirea actualelor obligaţiuni în obligaţiuni legate de PIB. Dacă Grecia merge bine, creditorii ei vor primi mai mult din suma împrumutată; dacă nu merge bine, ei vor obţine mai puţin. Ambele părţi ar avea în acest caz motive suficiente pentru a urma politici orientate către creştere.
Rareori alegerile democratice transmit mesaje atât de puternice precum cel din Grecia. Dacă Europa va spune nu dorinţei alegătorilor greci de a modifica politica ţării, este ca şi cum ar spune că democraţia nu mai are importanţă atunci când vorbim despre economie. De ce să nu întrerupem democraţia atunci, aşa cum s-a făcut în Terra Nova înainte de al Doilea Război Mondial, când teritoriul a retrecut sub administrare directă britanică.
Se poate spera că vor avea câştig de cauză cei care înţeleg economia datoriilor şi a austerităţii şi care cred în democraţie şi în valorile umane. Rămâne însă de văzut dacă vor reuşi cu adevărat să aibă câstig de cauză.”
sursa: cotidianul.ro
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