Emmanuel Todd
Pornind de la şocul produs de victoria stângii radicale în alegerile anticipate din Grecia, antropologul Emmanuel Todd explică pentru revista Marianne mecanismele acestui acestui scrutin şi ale căderii sistemului democratic european sub jugul unei Germanii care are o logică a puterii din ce în ce mai autoritară.
Nu v-aţi exprimat opinia după atentatele de la Charlie Hebdo, de ce nu v-am auzit vorbind pe acest subiect?
Refuz, de fapt, orice discuţii în Franţa despre semnificaţia şi consecinţele sale. Nivelul de saturare unanimistă din presă este atât de mare încât face inutilă analiza sociologică. Aştept să revină calmul pentru a mă exprima. În contextul acestei discuţii despre problemele Franţei vreau să amintesc că a insista pe islam nu va rezolva adevărata problemă a elitelor din Franţa: supunerea faţă de Germania.
Săptămânalul Der Spiegel a arătat la începutul lunii ianuarie că Germania nu se va opune ieşirii Greciei din zona euro, în cazul în care coaliţia stângii radicale (Syriza) va câştiga alegerile. Ulterior, Angela Merkel a susţinut că îşi doreşte ca Grecia să facă parte în continuare din istoria europeană. Cum interpretaţi faptul că Germania avertizează asupra ieşirii din zona euro?
Adevărata dramă a pro-europenilor este că Grecia să iasă din zona euro şi apoi sa se descurce mult mai bine. Pe termen scurt va fi greu, dar ieşirea din zona euro va fi precum o revoluţie socială. Este ceva ce nu a fost analizat, Jacques Sapir a mers foarte departe pe planul previziunilor economice. Dar, dincolo de economie, o ieşire din zona euro ar fi un şoc cultural. Este ca un fenomen de repunere în mişcare pe plan social şi o ţară care se află într-un asemenea proces va ieşi întotdeauna mai bine. Acesta este riscul pentru Europa, de a vedea cum viaţa reapare la porţile sale. Este bine, pentru că au făcut tot ce au putut pentru a păzi aceste porţi, iar “ameninţarea” lui Merkel nu are decât un scop electoral. Aceasta pentru că ieşirea Greciei din zona euro ar fi sfârşitul sistemului.
Însă spunând că este gata să scoată Grecia din Euro, Europa nu-şi dezvăluie oare adevărata natură anti-democratică?
Ceea ce se observă din toate acestea este că Europa nu mai este lumea unei democraţii liberale egalitare. Europa ia forma unui imperiu având in înima sa o democraţie etnică. Popoarele europene nu mai sunt egale. Există o democraţie care funcţionează: Germania, cu Merkel care este susţinută de populaţia sa într-un mod destul de particular, pentru că acolo avem o coaliţie între dreapta şi stânga. Mecanismele democratice funcţionează în interior în ţară dominantă, însă regulile democratice, dreptul la vot de exemplu, nu se mai aplică popoarelor dominate de la periferie. Antropologul belgian Pierre Van den Berghe numea aceasta o “herrenvolk democracy”, termen folosit pentru Africa de Sud şi Statele Unite în perioada segregaţiei. Este un sistem de guvernare în care sistemul democratic este acaparat de un grup etnic, în timp ce grupurile dominate sunt private de drepturile lor. Aplicând acest model în Europa, se observă ca atunci când germanii votează este ceva important, dar când grecii votează, aceasta nu mai contează. Ca atunci când francezii au votat împotriva Tratatului constituţional european în 2005. În acest moment suntem între două lumi, vocea oamenilor nu mai contează, în special pentru că până şi în ţările dominate exista elite oligarhice care aplică modelul ţării dominante. Peste tot există o tendinţă antidemocratică latenta. Este o “Europă germană”, care însă nu poate funcţiona în acest fel, pentru că este o Europa oligarhică.
Cum vă explicaţi pasivitatea populaţiei, făcând abastracţie de fenomenele Syriza şi Podemos?
Această derivă antidemocratică este acceptată în general pentru că Europa este încă bogată şi exista ceva în evoluţia tuturor societăţilor care duce la inegalitate. Chestiunea fundamentală este dimensiunea educativă. Toata lumea ştie să scrie şi să citească, iar aceasta duce la un spirit egalitar în întreaga societate, însă dezvoltarea educaţiei superioare produce o populaţie scindată pe acest plan. Există acum oameni care se cred fie superiori, fie secundari, fie primari. Elitismul şi populismul sunt la putere.
În teorie, oamenii au favorizat mereu egalitatea, dar în modul lor de a fi ei nu sunt foarte egalitari. Trebuie să adăugăm aici îmbătrânirea populaţiei. Oligarhia este o lume a celor cu diplome, superiori şi în vârstă. Acest sistem oligarhic va fi tolerat până când reducerea nivelului de trai va deveni foarte violentă pentru tineri, pentru bătrâni şi pentru cei cu studii superioare.
De ce această cantonare într-o politică de austeritate care îşi arată mereu limitele?
Eşecul euro este catastrofal, Europa este împotmolită într-o criză din care nu va ieşi niciodată. Politica germană de austeritate este ciudată şi mi-e greu să o înţeleg. Poate fi rodul senilităţii (populaţia germană este cea mai îmbătrânită din Europa), poate fi o simplă prostie, poate fi o variantă de schizofrenie a comportamentelor economice ale populatiei germane. În ce priveşte elitele conducătoare, cred că aici ne aflăm în registrul perversităţii: politica de austeritate asigură dominaţia Germaniei care oferă credite şi asigură supunearea popoarelor de la periferie. Am o viziune antropologică a unei Germanii în care familia era autoritară şi inegalitară şi sunt aproape oripilat să văd că această ţară este incapabilă sa iasă din valorile tradiţionale autoritate şi inegalitare. Ca şi cetatean, îmi doresc să mă înşel. Ca şi cercetător, cred că Germania va confirma totuşi modelul meu istoric. Aş putea spune că Germania lucrează pentru propria mea glorie.
Vreţi să spuneţi că germanii rămân un popor dominator?
Germania are o cultură autoritară – ca şi Japonia, de exemplu, o ţară pe care o iubesc – ceea ce demonstrează că nu vreau să insult pe nimeni. Problema culturilor autoritare când sunt într-o situaţie de dominanţă relativă este că toată lumea se simte bine, mai puţin liderii. Fiecare persoană care are un şef ştie ce are de făcut. Problema o au cei care au funcţii de decizie foarte importante, aşa cum este cazul Germaniei în spaţiul european. La persoanele nu au un şef se conservă derive psihologice. Acesta a fost cazul in istoria Getrmaniei cu Wilhelm al II-lea: Germania a devenit cea mai mare putere europeană şi a intrat într-o etapă de orgoliu nemăsurat, de delir megaloman. Astăzi, liderii au o problemă cu incertitudinea ce planează asupra scopurilor de urmat, iar efectul acestui vid este căutarea puterii. Este ceva greu de înţeles pentru un francez, pentru că în Franţa toata lumea vrea să fie şef şi astfel în Franţa problemele şefilor sunt de cu totul altă natură.
Şi cu toate acestea, elitele franceze nu încetează să laude modelul german…
Elitele franceze au o enormă responsabilitate pentru reapariţia derivei germane, pentru că ele s-au aşezat la remorca unei ţări care nu are o adevărată direcţie în afara de logica puterii. Fără îndoială că 2014 va fi amintit ca anul conştientizării acestei derive hegemonice a Germaniei. Chiar şi americanii vor înţelege că germanii sunt rivalii lor strategici. În schimb, liderii francezi îşi fac iluzii. Atitudinea lor se limitează la ceva de genul “este puţină hegemonie, dar ce e mai greu a trecut”. Ei nu văd că actualul stadiu al hegemoniei germane nu este cel final. Nu este decât începutul unui proces de derivă autoritară!
Este o strategie de putere care nu este complet absurdă, dar liderii noştri nu-şi dau seama că este un proces dinamic de dominare. Astăzi miniştrii noştri merg pentru sfaturi la Berlin, dar în curând Franţa va fi condusă prin emailuri. Umilinţa abia începe. Clasa noastra conducătoare – atât stânga, cât şi dreapta – trăieşte într-o umilinţă acceptată. Sunt conştient că mulţi germani sunt puţin atinşi de modul meu de a mă exprima, dar ştiu că mulţi dintre ei vor simţi că ştiu bine cultura ţării lor. Cu dilemele şi incertitudinile sale, clasa conducătoare din Germania are nevoie de liderii francezi pe post de parteneri şi nu din postura de servitute voluntară.
Nu credeţi deloc într-un declin al Germaniei? Acest declin ar fi legat de problemele demografice sau de degradarea recentă a situaţiei economice?
Pe termen lung, situaţia demografică a Germaniei este catastrofală şi o dominaţie eternă a Germaniei este de neconceput. Dar când ne limităm la aceasta interpretare facem doar “demografism”: deducem ceva foarte simplu pornind de la natalitatea germană foarte redusă. Populaţia germana ar fi trebuit să se reducă de acum 20 de ani. Nu e cazul. Nu am vrut să observăm că Germania a fost prima ţară de imigraţie din Europa. Germania, care este ostilă faţă de greci şi spanioli a primit mână de lucru, muncitori şi funcţionari din aceste state. În strategia economică germană, forţa de munca se caută în două feluri: simpla imigraţie şi preluarea controlului asupra populaţiei active calificate din Europa de Est, adică foloseşte mâna de lucru calificată formată în timpul comunismului în Polonia, Cehia, etc. De aceea eu văd situaţia din Ucraina ca o parte a strategiei germane de a prelua controlul asupra unei părţi a populaţiei ucrainene active. Dezintegrarea în curs a societăţii ucrainene ar putea asigura Germaniei ani de echilibru demografic şi de hegemonie.
Dacă mergem pe acest model istoric, va veni totuşi un moment când Franta va spune nu?
Vom vedea. Populaţiile sunt altfel. Oligarhia este o lume bătrână. Vârsta medie în Germania este de 44 de ani, în Franţa de 40 de ani, iar aceasta înseamnă că electoratele au în medie peste 50 de ani. Asta nu ne preaa multe motive de optimism…
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حملات توعية لطلاب الصيدلة بجامعة المستقب… [...]always a huge fan of linking to bloggers that I enjoy but dont get lots of link really like from[...]
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